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What If Scenario: Kusari Civil War - WesternPeregrine - 05-28-2014
There has been in some channels, for the past several months, discussions about an eventual civil war in Kusari, mostly centered in the Imperials and Republicans.
While I certainly have not a single clue of what the Devs want to do next regarding Kusari storyline, I feel it's a good community exercise to sketch some concepts about "what could be".
For this thread start, I present a possible scenario.
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A 3 Way War.
Starting phase background:
The Kusari Exiles, loyal servants to the Exiled emperor, or his successor, have been hiding in the Taus under the protection of the Gallic Council forces. While most of their current activity has been focusing on assisting his allies against Gallia, they still desire to retake power in Kusari, and to seek justice against those who had deposed their emperor.
They count on the support of the Council, a weak line of resources from the Bretonian forces, and covert assistance from Samura, Hogosha and overt support from the Farmers Alliance forces. Their forces roam the eastern Taus, and make small strides into Kyushu, past the attentive forces of the Republican KNF.
In the same vein, the Blood Dragons might rejoice that the Samura backed Imperialists have been thrown out of Kusari, but still feel that the authority of the Shogun is the right path for Kusari, and resent the republicans for taking their moment of glory from their hands. With covert support from the GMG and Order and allying with the GC, they preserve and improve their forces, keeping an eye on republican movements in Hokkaido and Honshu.
Meanwhile, in New Tokyo the Republic is at an impasse. Concerned about their relation with Liberty, and at the same time trying to appease the Gallics, they squabble about how to strengthen their position, how to maintain the order inside the House, and how to deal with the stronger neighbors.
With a strong but short handed Navy on their side, and a weak Police force present, they try to uphold a perilous balance inside Ksuari, keeping their presence beyond the secure borders to the minimum. For this purpose they count on the economical support of Kishiro and Samura, who try to use the less authoritarian regime to sway things in their favor.
At the same time, persecution against the GC is becoming less severe, although the stance against cardamine hasn’t changed.
The Republic is wary of the several reports of Imperial forces being sighted in the Taus, and on the rather lack of presence of the Blood Dragons in recent months…
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The Kempeitai remains silent to the activity of the various forces, keeping most his operations to themselves. Some bureaucrats question themselves if they are as loyal to the Republic as the Navy, or if they claim other allegiances.
The Hogosha have suffered some under the regime change. While keeping their infamous place as the main force in the Kusari underworld, their bindings to the former all powerful Samura are weaker, and their operations are harassed constantly by GC and Junker pilots inside and outside of Kusari, sometimes by both of them at the same time. Their animosity with GMG hampers their smooth connections to the Corsairs, which remain their most important partner outside of the house. In the Taus, the Hogosha try to provide supplies to their brethren in the Exiled forces, and keep faint contact with the Gaians, who have achieved some autonomy from Bretonia but have turned into a less than ideal partner for the Artifact smuggling into that House.
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Eyes across the border:
Gallia - Elsewhere, Gallia is busy with the war on Bretonia, and the strain of the war forces them rotate their forces frequently from the front lines. At the same time, the constant strikes by several enemy forces in the Taus put a strain in their logistics, and they have to dispense forces to protect their corporate ventures in the systems, while keeping an eye on the neutral factions that might be supporting their enemies. They view the Kusari Republic in favorable terms, certainly better than the Imperial alternative, and keep a keen eye on any evolution of the Exile presence in Kusari, or any attempts by the Republic to become closer to Liberty.
(-What is the true perception of Gailla regarding the Blood Dragons?
- Can the Blood Dragons promote themselves to Gallia as an “anti-emperor, anti-Liberty” alternative?
-Would Gallia be able to intervene in Kusari should the Imperial gain a foothold? Would the Council be able to keep them at bay?
-How would the Rishiri route be handled?)
Liberty - Liberty has been on a rocky relationship with the New Kusari Republic government, which doesn’t deviate much from the relationship it had with the previous regime. Liberty corporations have recently recovered their access to GMG cheap fuel sources, and Kusari is a passageway for many other resources necessary for the Liberty war industry. While attentions are focused on Bretonia theater of operations, the government and Navy do not discard the possibility of Kusari becoming a second front for their war. The question is who will trigger that scenario…
(Would Liberty support the Exile forces, risking an intervention by Gallia in Kusari? Or will they support another faction with closer relations with the GMG?)
Rheinland- The war with Liberty goes on, and Kusari neutrality has been beneficial to the rehinlanders, who get unhindered access to the Gallia market and resources, as well as a stable northern border with Kusari and GMG.
The prospects of a war in Ksuari would change this, and no doubt Rheinland intelligence is keeping tabs on developments regarding the republicans and the libertonians.
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Setting the scenario:
Kyushu (And Tottori?)- With the forces slowly returning from extended embargo operations in Shikoku, the republicans are caught by surprise by a popular uprising in Kyushu, incited by the imperial loyalists. The Nagumo is ordered to move to the planet to assist the quelling of the riots, when it’s attacked by a large Imperial force, who entered the system in coordination with the riots. The Nagumo holds an attack by several Imperial destroyers and a battlecruiser, until several rigged transports of the Farmers Alliance appear and ram the Battleship, inflicting severe damage.
The Nagumo is forced to retreat to New Tokyo and regroup with the reinforcements, and manages to halt the advance of the Imperials at the Honshu gate.
With the jumpgate to Tau-29 under control, and heavy fighting occurring in Planet Kyushu, the Imperial Forces bring their hidden Battleships to Kyushu, and the recovery from their losses, preparing for the next push.
The Dragons become aware of this events, and after sending word to their leaders, begin operation to disrupt the Imperial advance from the North of Kyushu..
Honshu- Meanwhile the Blood Dragons have been monitoring the movements of the Navy in the system, and became aware of the reduced strength of the patrols coming out of Kansai and around the Planet Honshu. They have contacted some elements of the Honshu garrison, and still have some loyal individuals in key positions in the planetary government. The faint relations they held with Kishiro have faded away, and are now as much of a target as Samura.
When word reaches of the invasion by imperial forces in Kyushu, the Dragons are quick to react, and launch several strikes in key positions across the Honshu system. They manage to disable the lane leading to the New Tokyo jumpgate, and make an assault on Yokohama Shipyard, taking it with a successful but costly boarding action. At the same time, they isolate Kansai Research Station, and official loyal to the movement declare the Planet Kyushu allegiance to the Dragons. There are still many people loyal to the Republic, and although they control the docking ring, they still can’t claim complete control of the population.
The southern route is hotly contested, with Samura and Hogosha forces in Osaka trying to keep a link to New Tokyo open, while the police forces at Akita try to keep the border in check from outsiders, undecided between either side.
Hokkaido and Rishiri - At the same time as the operation in Honshu, the Blood Dragons launch vicious strikes against Otaru border station in Hokkaido, and against the Matsumoto stationed there. While the veteran Blood Dragons strike true at any units caught in the lanes and near Sapporo, the seasoned forces of the Matsumoto manage keep them at bay. Unfortunately, GC saboteurs had previously managed to enter the Otaru station and successfully bomb it, crippling the defenses around the Hokkaido-Rishiri Gate. Sensing they would lose their ground soon enough, and that returning to New Tokyo would result in their destruction, the captain of the Matsumoto orders the battlegroup to head to Rishiri and regroup near Misaki Station. They are pursued by several wings of Blood Dragons, but upon arriving at Misaki, the Republicans are reinforced by several groups of Hogosha, who had arrived to protect Misaki from the rumored BD attacks.
The Blood Dragons take control of most of Hokkaido, with the Republican forces spitted between Rishiri and the New Tokyo border. (Not sure if the line is drawn at Yokohama Shipyard, or in Sapporo Station.)
Shikoku- In the south things go better for the republicans. The GC attempt to launch several across the system, but the strong presence of bounty hunters, hogosha and Naval forces prevents them to achieve favorable results. The Farmers Alliance try to provoke an uprising in Junyo, but police forces are reinforced by military detachments for the moving KNF forces. The Hogosha remain somewhat muted about the events, keeping some distance from the riots,but helping some of the Farmers escape when the situation falls out of their favour. The Naval forces suffer several attacks along the lanes, but manage to hold their ground. They keep the border to Liberty open, but with redoubled efforts, in order to prevent Libertonian forces from being too curious about what’s happening.
New Tokyo- The capital is in panic after the news agencies start reporting riots in Kyushu and Honshu, and the sightings of Kusari ships firing on each other in all borders. The republicans decide to suspend the Parliament, and install a war government. Meanwhile the republican Navy activates it’s contingency plans, and fortifies the Honshu and Hokkaido gates accordingly.
Lacking intelligence as to why both enemies decided to attack at the same time, they turn to the KPT to gather information about the status in the other systems. The KPT replies with requests of stronger access to decision making processes in the war cabinet, which are strongly opposed by the Naval command.
Meanwhile accusations are thrown from all sides about who caused the crisis. Some say that Samura had helped sabotage the defenses in Kyushu, while others said that Kishiro had striven for complete control by aiding the Blood Dragons. While the republicans are not quick to judge if any of the corporations had blame on this, the Republic trust on both corporations was damaged. It would lie on Kishiro and Samura what would their role be in the war.
Tohoku System- In Tohoku, flames of war stir the Aoi Iseijin into activity, sensing the great opportunity to once again cause havoc in Kusari. They have many targets to choose from, but the Dragons were wary of their moves, and after having made enough advances to isolate the system from Republican influence, call on their Order allies for support in containing the Iseijin. The Order is most interested in taking over the Iseijin Base and uncover his secrets before the Kusari forces have enough strength to return to Tohoku. The Iseijin have to struggle between defending their base from the Order advances, disrupting the Dragons hold on the system and northern Kusari, and finding a way of moving to the Capital and infiltrate the defending forces. It is unknown of the fate of the Sado Battlegoup...
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The new power balance:
At the end of this first phase, each faction would have some of the Kusari territory under their control.
The Republican strength would be their numbers, as well as the still well protected New Tokyo System, and (possibly) the superior intelligence efforts of the KPT. Their weakness would obviously be the several fronts, isolated forces in the north, the possibility of dissent inside their authority, and the lack of many of their supplies.
On the Imperial side, their strength (theoretically) would be the increased veterancy of their forces, who have been fighting non stop for the past years against several enemies. They also count of supplies and reinforcements from the Farmers Alliance.
(Potential: While allied with several forces in the Taus, they request that their allies focus on detaining the Gallic response.)
Their weak points are restricted fuel supplies, a restricted number of capital ships in good condition, (and an almost fanatical devotion to the Pope… I mean emperor).
On the Dragons side, they count with fast ambush teams, captured forces from Honshu (and a shipyard now), and ample supplies from GMG.
On the weak side, they have outdated Capital ships, lots of ground to cover (from the edges of Nagano to the south of Honshu), a race with the Imperials for power, and pesky interventions from the Hogosha.
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Regarding secondary groups.
I would say there could be two key groups which would be able to move between specific factions, which are the Hogosha and the GC.
The Hogosha could orbit between the Imperial and Republican sides, smuggling and aiding whichever they would like (as an individual or in groups). They would still dislike the Blood Dragons (even more if they find out the GMG support), and perhaps could call on some Corsair mercenaries to strike the Dragons in Honshu.
The Golden Chrysanthemums would be the other group, orbiting the Dragons/Republican axis. On one side they support the Dragons with intelligence and sabotage (assassinations too) against the Imperials and republicans. On the other hand they can find some of the more liberal republicans better allies, and support those efforts. They would still dislike the Imperials for their conservative thinking, and may request the aid of the Outcasts against their forces in Kyushu.
Unsure if GC and Hogosha would be mutually hostile in this situation. I guess Republican forces would have choose one. (Game changing decision)
The KSP command is broken down with the invasion, and control falls down to the regional level. KSP starts neutral to all involved parties (Imperials, Republicans, Dragon loyalists), and may choose to uphold the law without involving in the civil war, or pick a side (due to legal, political, territorial reasons).
Samura and Kishiro will be the real wildcards. With the invasion breaking up the territories, any hasty decision will cut the corporation’s bases in half.
For example, if Samura overtly supports the emperor, the Republicans might capture Shinjuku and Osaka (and Sapporo) from their control. The reverse could happen, and the Imperials take Tsushima.
Iseijin have no fixed role in the civil war, and may use all the tricks to infiltrate/disrupt/support/take over all and any force. It depends on their ability really.
In relation to this part, the Order would use the Dragons advances to infiltrate Kusari space, and to press on the Tekagi Arch in Tohoku system.
KPT would initially be aligned to the Republicans (faction’s number balance) but some liberty might be taken with them, depending on the circumstances.
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Foreign actors.
I’m still unsure on how the foreign houses view the situation on Kusari (comments about this are welcome ), and to what degree would they be able to intervene. We wouldn’t want to have this exciting scenario broken down just because Gallia suddenly decides Kusari is too much trouble, and moves in to annex.
So I want opinions about what limits the roles Rheinland, Gallia and Liberty (and GMG) should have in the Kusari crisis (Bretonia is still a little out of the field to participate no?), and other smaller neighbors (although they could just take an unbinding stance, and act as they wish).
Progress requirements:
If this scenario (or an alternative one) be taken and implemented, it would be required that a roadmap for the progress of the plot be designed, detailing what events would happen, and what goal requirements would have to be achieved for the plot to move in this or that direction.
Any of the factions would have several events (months long campaigns, special operations, diplomatic events, etc.) occurring in each phase, and all that were successful would weigh on the positive progress of that faction campaign. Spontaneous events would also be considered as minor boosts to this progress.
At the end of each phase, the results of each faction would be measured, and the new situation of the campaign be drafted out. At the beginning of the next phase, the map would be redrawn, forces strengths would be changed, and new objectives be indicated.
I now open this thread for comments and critiques on this What If, as well as any other similar proposals regarding Kusari future.
Thank you for your time.
Edit 1: Added notes about Tohoku system, and Nomad/Order conflict prospectives.
RE: What If Scenario: Kusari Civil War - Unlucky_Soul - 05-28-2014
I like it. Kusari has been dead most of the times . Hopefully this will boost activity.
RE: What If Scenario: Kusari Civil War - Zelot - 05-28-2014
I have been pushing for a civil war for a long time. The return of the Exiles to Kyushu was supposed to be a first step in that direction. It is the only thing that makes sense. Your version above is pretty good. I think you are giving the Dragons a bit too much power. But then again, I see a different 3 way civil war.
Group 1- KNF, KSP - They are holding down New Tokyo, not for the government and not for Kishiro or Samura, but for the people. New Tokyo is under martial law imposed by the KNF. They have minimal control of Hokkido though, Imperialists and Republicans are both pushing there.
Group 2 (Republicans) - Kishiro, GMG, Dragons - They hold Honshu solid, the Sigmas, and pushing into Hokkido
Group 3 (Imperialists) - Exiles, FA, Samura - They hold Kyushu solid, and have minimal control in Shikoku.
Oddballs - GC, Hogosha - The Hogosha will pass between all three group, it would be a boon for their power, and hopefully activity as inhouse smugglers. The GC while close with the BD, wouldnt come on board, because no one would be looking to support the legalization of Cardimine and the decriminalization of the GC. They would focus on working with the OC to try and push the Hogosha out of their spot as the dominant criminal organization in Kusari. They might even get closer to the Junkers to achieve this, as they have no love for the Hogs nor the Imperialists, nor the Republicans.
I think this splits the power very equally, each group has one of the boarders into the House, with the KNF holding 2 (Liberty in Shikoku and Gallia in Hokkido.) In addition it gives the KNF a great role of defender of the house, trying to hold all the sides together, enforcing a non-fire zone in New Tokyo and trying to maintain some semblance of law and order in the house. It's a really noble role for them, which I think fits, as I have always felt that the KNF stayed out of politics, and this gives them another chance to stand above the fray and play peacemaker.
Anyways, this isnt a fully fleshed out post, I have an old one around somewhere I will look for when I have time. But in general, it's good to hear people pushing for civil war, it should be done, it just needs to be very carefully balanced.
RE: What If Scenario: Kusari Civil War - Panzer - 05-28-2014
It all depends on how much of a fleet the legit (hate his guts, but he's legit nontheless) emporer has at his grubby fingertips. and how many republican troops he'd be able to turn, as well as to what extent Samura would be willing to support it all with funding and replacement gear.
I seriously, seriously don't get what the actual meh hapened with Kusari on G-day. All of a sudden, a portion of the fleet assaulting and making good progress towards Leeds gets buttsecks'd by the Royals. Fine, they buttsecks'd half of the galaxy >.>. And then for reasons I, as one of this server's most prominent fanboys of history as well as political and military theory can't comprehend - Kusari turns on its heel, the frontline units, not sure how badly mauled, but apparently not destroyed completely - get disowned by a new, self-styled givernment and the emperor... overthrown and kicked out. Form his own palace planetside (or yacht, dunno where he was at the time) as a result of ONE defeat? One fail after a largely successful campaign? It's so un-Kusari, that it isn't even funny. I have a japanese national on the team for a while now and his every comment on how ridiculously stereotypical Kusari's been designed by Digi Anvil is as insightful and valid as it is hilariously insulting for modern and historical Japan. How about some consistency? gaijin this, gaijin that - under stereotypical coditions, Kusari would have rigged chimmies to kamikaze into royal ships, defend their planets until nuked and throwing their last reserves into an elaborate fleet-sized suicide of a decisive battle attempt. One they might miraculously win against all odds >.>
Dayum straight Kusari deserves a civil war.
RE: What If Scenario: Kusari Civil War - Scumbag - 05-28-2014
The problem is gallia would step in. They are too close, too strong. You need to kill gallia if you want to revive Kusari.
RE: What If Scenario: Kusari Civil War - Vulkhard Muller - 05-28-2014
(05-28-2014, 09:19 PM)Panzer Wrote: It all depends on how much of a fleet the legit (hate his guts, but he's legit nontheless) emporer has at his grubby fingertips. and how many republican troops he'd be able to turn, as well as to what extent Samura would be willing to support it all with funding and replacement gear.
I seriously, seriously don't get what the actual meh hapened with Kusari on G-day. All of a sudden, a portion of the fleet assaulting and making good progress towards Leeds gets buttsecks'd by the Royals. Fine, they buttsecks'd half of the galaxy >.>. And then for reasons I, as one of this server's most prominent fanboys of history as well as political and military theory can't comprehend - Kusari turns on its heel, the frontline units, not sure how badly mauled, but apparently not destroyed completely - get disowned by a new, self-styled givernment and the emperor... overthrown and kicked out. Form his own palace planetside (or yacht, dunno where he was at the time) as a result of ONE defeat? One fail after a largely successful campaign? It's so un-Kusari, that it isn't even funny. I have a japanese national on the team for a while now and his every comment on how ridiculously stereotypical Kusari's been designed by Digi Anvil is as insightful and valid as it is hilariously insulting for modern and historical Japan. How about some consistency? gaijin this, gaijin that - under stereotypical coditions, Kusari would have rigged chimmies to kamikaze into royal ships, defend their planets until nuked and throwing their last reserves into an elaborate fleet-sized suicide of a decisive battle attempt. One they might miraculously win against all odds >.>
Dayum straight Kusari deserves a civil war.
A Very serious post rounded with a good big hearty laugh. Got the point across for me!
Kusari Civil War!!!!!!!!!!!
and more on topic:
I would enjoy this, it would bring much needed activity to Kusari. Pewing attracts people.
RE: What If Scenario: Kusari Civil War - Zed26 - 05-28-2014
Lots of well thought-out points. I'll offer a brief one that I'd been thinking of for a long time. I know this is Liberty/Bretonia-centric - and I'm sorry if this is a total misreading of the lore - but it can shift the focus of the most populous houses to Kusari and its borders, while giving the Exile side a much-needed boost for a proper civil war:
There is double-dealing going on in a fashion similar to real-word policies. Liberty is trying to maintain lukewarm relations with the Kusari Republic in order to keep them from calling for Gallic Royal support and cutting off Liberty's route to GMG and its fuel.
At the same time, however, Liberty is secretly providing material support to the Exiles in hopes that a quick and successful return to Imperial control, with minimal losses of defenses and infrastructure, to prevent the Gallic Crown from sweeping in. Due to their apolitical nature, is it even possible that the KNF will stand down to ensure Kusari is not destroyed from either direction - or will they strengthen the martial law in the spirit of protecting the house and take control of territories themselves? Ideally, this will create a buffer against Gallic Royal forces - and possibly even wear them down by pressing the attack on another front if they have enough support.
Bretonia will most likely be involved, with BIS and LSF agents, the Council, and Gallic unlawfuls/quasilawfuls jointly working in clandestine economic sabotage operations against the Kusari Republic and Gallic Crown, while protecting their respective houses' shipping companies as they haul supplies, weapons, and fuel to Exile bases.
At the borders of the Republic of Kusari, skirmishes between Exiles and the KPT/KNF increase and the Kempeitai are mobilized to determine how the Exiles have suddenly become better supplied and equipped. Perhaps as time goes on, the odd LSF, BIS agent, or Bret/Lib transport is caught up in a fight or Bret/Lib tech is spotted amongst the Exiles' arsenal, breaking down the already fragile relations. Will Liberty and Kusari shore up their borders at Shikoku/Galileo/Kepler (with the Zoners at Ames caught in the middle)? As relations continue to deteriorate, will either side begin escalating their presence and inch into the other house's territory? With Rheinland's destruction of its jump gates and defensive stance, it seems that Liberty is in a prime position to use its forces elsewhere, especially as their support of the Exiles becomes more blatant. Still, an opportunistic Rheinland can use their relationship with the Gallic Crown and current lack of attention to cut some new deals and bolster their forces.
RE: What If Scenario: Kusari Civil War - Mephistoles - 05-28-2014
I could see the current situation in the mod leading to a finally united and cohesive Kusari, with the Exiles serving as the catalyst.
Something along the lines of the Exiles moving back in with serious support from the local populace and eventually taking control, after a pretty nasty fight of course. Recent events would serve as an eye-opener among peasant and leader alike, leading to a dialogue between the reinstated Exile government (who recognise Kusari is going to end up in a bad way if it remains fractured) and the likes of the Blood Dragons, GC, Samura, Kishiro etc to finally address issues such as the Hideyoshi Shogunate and womens' rights. The current leader of the Exiles (didn't the old one die or something) could be a revolutionary who understands the mistakes of past Shoguns and is willing to make popular concessions on all sides in order to re-unite a broken house and take it to glory.
RE: What If Scenario: Kusari Civil War - Omicron - 05-28-2014
The Order would deffinately side with Blood Dragons and initially focus on northern Kusari - most notably Tohoku which awfuly is missing from your list. Removal of both Nomads and KNF would be their objective.
I disagree with Kishiro siding with GMG or BD in Zelot's plan. They just turned into another copy of Samura. I believe they would be the power behind KNF & KSP, while Samura secretly aids the "Emphra". GMG naturally with BD side.
RE: What If Scenario: Kusari Civil War - Zelot - 05-28-2014
(05-28-2014, 10:19 PM)Omicron Wrote: The Order would deffinately side with Blood Dragons and initially focus on northern Kusari - most notably Tohoku which awfuly is missing from your list. Removal of both Nomads and KNF would be their objective.Lest we forget that every conflict in Sirius is really about the Nomads and the Order.