Apart from this being a very nice dissection of the CR-UC-C triangle, i don't know where this information should lead to to be honest. I am sure you don't need my seal of approval for anything- and you have already taken steps to get away from the "unneccessary alliance between teh council and the colonials it seems, too.
But i do want to comment on the "how could anyone possibly know" thing - in times of Wiki/whateverleaks, NSA spy affairs and whatnot, combined with journalism embedded in modern armies - i think there is not the slightest hope of ever keeping information secret about who attacked an organized military such as the gallic one.
If the CR strike with the Council or with the Corse against anything i would expect it to be covered by the general news in Gallia at least. You could theorize something about radar jamming or whatnot- that also means though that you win and won't leave a single survivor anywhere, if at all possible.
But basically the only problem i see after your description is that the Gallic military will find out that the Colonials and the UC or the Council and the UC work toghether, right? And from what Summer sugggests, this sounds like the UC should try to "get away" a bit from the Council and a bit more from the Colonials for their own sake....
So i would point out that this triangle is a lot more solid(maybe not perfect which is arguable) than the dropped-into the discussion- Mollys - where you will get into problems of justifying why keeping badly thought out original lore or not healthyly evolved disco relation just for the sake of it- here you could dig out a lot of potential by looking at all relations and their feasibility...here a revamp could refreshen and vitalize things as well as improving the diplomacy sanity
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