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Shimamori · (This post was last modified: 08-05-2020, 11:43 AM by Shimamori.)

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Konnichiwa! This is Ito Fumihiro and you are watching "Hi no ki” (//Mood of the Day) on All Honshu Network. We are offering news on the latest developments in Kusari and beyond.

I has been over a month weeks since the Reformed Empire of Kusari declared war on the Confederacy of Gallia. This offensive war was declared as a surprise to the many citizens of the Empire only 2 years after the end of the civil war in Kusari and the expulsion of the Gallic puppets who had kept Kusari a semi-official vassal of the warmongering Kingdom. The decision of the government to wage an offensive war without proper explanation given to the stakeholders and the citizenry as to the motives and reasoning behind the war raised concerns regarding the quality of strategic communication of the government, the transparency of political processes, and the competence of the top bureaucratic apparatus of the Reformed Empire itself.

Today we will try to analyse this questions with the invited guests, Professor Miura Sadako, expert on PR and stratcom at the University of New Tokyo, and koushaku Shimamori Masahito, a political activist who openly opposed the war.

First, we give word to Professor Miura. Konnichiwa, Miura-san. Without further delays, let us delve into the analysis of the situation. From the viewpoint of state communication, how would you evaluate Kusari’s informational sphere?

Konnichiwa. Thank you inviting me to the studio. In my opinion, the state communication of Kusari right now is not in its best shape. Despite the claims of the Reformed republic of trying to provide the populace of the House with larger representation through political institutions like parliament and respective specialist committees, and therefore greater transparency - they seem to be doing this in words only. I will not comment on the political participation part as I am not an expert in this field. The elections took place after all. The transparency, however, is what I research in particular.

The government seems to not understand that in order to invoke the support of the people one must be transparent about the course of action. I have heard before points like “Kusari is a monarchy and the monarch does not need the recognition of his actions among the citizens”. If so, then what is the whole affair with the “Reformed” Empire? There are still many people who are pro-republic and to them such an explanation would be like a slap on the face. Besides, if the monarch decides important actions just by himself, especially the matters of war - then it makes Kusari much more similar to the much despised tyrannical Kingdom of Gallia than anyone would want.

Take recent declaration of war for example. The message was oriented at international stakeholders and at the Confederacy of Gallia itself. However, the government did not care even to try to explain the reasoning behind such a step to the populace of Kusari as if people should just “roll with it”. This is not how a caring, and more importantly, professional government should act in a critical situation. I would not be commenting on the validity of the reasons for war declared in the message as I believe Shimamori-san will do that in a more professional manner. What I want to underline is the very fact of absence of any even slightest attempt on behalf of the government of Kusari to reach to the population and explain its motifs, the trade-offs between risks and benefits for a common kaishain (//company worker) or a nouka (//farmer) who truly cannot fathom the reason for the war when they need to earn a living after an economic plunge of Kusari following the Gallic puppet-regime and the civil war. Moreover, there are many indicators that the declaration of war with Gallia was put on air already after the first shots had been fired which is not just unprofessional but also dishonourable.

Miura-san, in your experience, is the current situation different from the previous Kusari governments during the Imperial and brief Republican eras?

This is the sad part. The situation is no different. People were putting hopes into the Reformed Empire as the idea of one was popularised as the combination of merits of both republican and imperial administrations. However, the hopes were not answered. Just think of Yuyu Matsuda and the whole Golden Chrysanthemums movement. Government overzealous persecution of her in the media made her a martyr because of whom the whole movement exists nowadays. Certainly, she was a terrorist linked to the attempted assassination of an important public figure and got a respective coverage, Yet the government did not answer concerns regarding the stance of a woman in Kusarian society raised by Matsuda. It is exactly this that gave birth to the Golden Chrysanthemums, because the women of Kusari saw that a terrorist would be justly persecuted, but just questions would not be answered. The government opted for silence, same as it is opting now.

This leads to the question about the role of media. How would you evaluate the work of media nowadays regarding the conflict?

Well, one thing is certain: media have never been truly independent. Sponsorship, lobbyism, threats - these all have been shifting the stance of particular media platforms since the inception thereof. Take even your channel, AHN. I would not be saying with full certainty, but it would appear that it pushes forward a rather liberal agenda as opposed to some other conservative media in Kusari. Therefore, AHN apparently has links to oppositional liberal politicum.

This is not a bad thing, however. As I said before, there cannot be a truly independent media, especially on a local level. What raises my concern is the position of some larger Sirian media conglomerates and the way the information is presented. Take for example recent CNS story on the war between Kusari and Gallia. There is a whole bunch of issues I see with presenting the material in such a way but I will address just a few.

Firstly, the news item starts with the reference to the Crayter Republic and Natio Octavarium and how Kusari pushed into Taus in an unexpected move. This would be fine if the stance of the Crayterians and the Octavarians was presented at least. It is simply discarded in favour of accenting on the push of Kusarians as if following its success the position of the local forces should not be taken into account and properly voiced.

Secondly, the wording. “Ejected”, “little in the way of”, “clamp down”, etc. - these are emotionally charged words. Normally, I would not pay attention to such trifles, yet a war especially with another House is a very sensitive topic and its inappropriate coverage can always “trigger” especially sensitive elements into unforeseen negative ramifications. Besides, these words were used not to describe a position of a side to the conflict which quite often is emotionally charged, but rather used to describe the developments, the facts that should always be neutral. The duty of the international media is to present the information in as neutral as possible fashion since both sides to the conflict are likely to see the material. It is simply irresponsible to do otherwise.

Thirdly, look and compare how the positions of Kusari and Gallia on the conflict are presented. While I will defer the analysis of reasons for war presented by the both sides to Shimamori-san, it is the manner of presentation that I will comment on. The stance of Kusari is presented in an effective bullet-point like way and is clear. The Gallic stance in the news is presented in a defensive explanatory was as if an elementary school kid was caught cheating and now giving silly excuses. Where are the condemnation of any offensive war and warmongering from the viewpoint of human rights, international security system, and without even a clearly outlined reason for war? It is as if the stance of a House that is to have a dedicated institution made of cadre professionals to represent it diplomatically was ignored.

And finally, where is the reaction of the other international entities on a clearly big war? I don’t believe that Liberty, Bretonia, and Rheinland would just ignore whatever is going in Taus and Gallia. If the media is international, their position whatever it might be is to be presented, or at least it must be clearly stated that they refused to comment on the developments if they indeed had done so, which is unlikely. I doubt that Liberty, always positioning itself as a paragon and champion of freedom and democracy would simply ignore commenting on the conflict.

These points create an image, at least to me, that there is some influence of Kusari government on the editorial board of CNS. This by itself would be a scandal should it be proven and, say, Liberty learns of it. Such a situation would pave a wave to biased information representation which can infringe the commercial activities of Houses and their corporations by downplaying their activities in favour of those lobbied. This is also a motivation for people to check on the local news of the both sides to get both perspectives and juxtapose them to get a larger picture. Certainly, analysing the media of smaller sides to the conflict, like Natio Octavarium or the Republic of Crayter would also be beneficial.

Arigatou gozaimasu, Miura-san. Now we give word to Shimamori Masahito. Dr. Shimamori, you openly criticised the beginning of the war in your public address. Your position was pretty clear, has it changed in any way since the beginning of the war and what do make of this war now?

My position has not changed. This war is a mistake, Kusari does not need another war. As Miura-san indicated in her analysis of stratcom, the government never cared to deliver the reason for the declaration of this war to the populace of Kusari. Perhaps, because they realised that the reaction would not be favourable. I read the comments to my address to Kusarian public where some Kusarian stakeholders said that the casus belli was “obvious” and that someone not understanding them is ignorant. Well, let me educate those people on the theory of international relations: the reasons for war are never obvious. Whatever you invoke to declare the war is rarely the true intentions for sending millions of people risking their lives by attempting to deprive their fellow Homo Sapiens of their lives. There is always some undercover play: ambitions of the corporations to expand their resources base, diversion of the attention of the populace from internal problems to external, support of military-industrial favour, you name it. Just remember the declaration of war of the Kingdom of Gallia on Sirius. Do you think of their casus belli as obvious? Do you truly think that punishment of Sirius for some ephemeral centuries-old betrayal was the real reason for war? Sapienti Sat.

I bet the reasons for war of Kusari with Gallia are far from the declared ones. Punish those guilty of Leeds? Why in the first place Kusari be preoccupied with the punishment of those to blame for the war crimes against the Kingdom of Bretonia? If I remember correctly, Bretonia was a party to the peace Conference with Gallia, which means they had the opportunity to settle the matter themselves. I would not treat Bretonia as a baby incapable of solving its own problems. Depriving the Confederacy of the WMD they allegedly possess? We saw hours of combat footage published by the Council who were fighting the royalists in ships devoid of any WMD. Now, that the ex-Council members de facto holding power in the Confederacy, I doubt they would suddenly abandon their principles in favour of embracing the ones of the royalists they were determined to overthrow. Yet again, look at their formulation of this cause: “Their weapons of mass destruction are simply dormant, inactive, ready to be re-activated whenever the Royal sympathizers see fit.” - this is a serious allegation that must have proofs. Taking action on the basis of groundless allegation just aggravates the guilt of the Kusari government and certainly does not reinforce their cause. If they were against the WMD in question, they should have cooperated with the Bretonians and Crayterians against the Enclave which clearly possesses the Royalist ships that had been equipped with the “Werwolf” cannons.

Same applies to the war criminals as the casus belli invoked. You think the Confederacy would willingly harbour known criminals to intentionally deteriorate their relations even further with the Houses that following the war would by default are distrustful to the Gauls? Or you think the ex-Council members who had lost numerous friends and relatives to the royalist war criminals would suddenly experience a change of heart and a surge of forgiveness to allow those criminals in question not only to continue living in Gallia, but also to avoid any punishment and even retain their posts? These two reasons are a joke, and to choose to actually publish them in a state-level international communication is to willingly humiliate the House of Kusari. Nobody sane would take this as a valid reason for war.

What are your thoughts on the real reasons for war then?

Glad you asked. My sources recently shared with me a peculiar document, the negotiations between the then newly established Confederacy of Gallia and the Reformed Empire of Kusari that had just lifted the yoke of the Gallic Royalists (with the help of the Confederates, by the way) regarding the normalisation of relationship and regulation of borders in Tau region. Since no sensitive strategic information was discussed in the negotiations, I see no reason not to make them publicly available. You can see for yourself that Kusari reached understanding with Gallia regarding the shared conduct of business in Taus which i can truly commend as a good diplomatic move on the behalf of the Reformed Empire. The interests of Kusari in Taus in the negotiations were well represented and maintained. However, it appears that Kusarian tatemae (//fake face) was used as it probably was not enough. As I see it, the Reformed Empire seeks to achieve what it tried to achieve in 814 in the war with Bretonia: control over Taus. Such reasoning might be reinforced by Samura, which is well-known to have close ties to the imperial family, seeking to expand its operations in the Taus that are traditionally seen as the domain of Samura as opposed to Kishiro primarily operating in Sigmas in cooperation with the GMG. The other reason might be reinforcing the support of the reformed government that cannot find its own identity. The idea of a short successful war bolstering the support for the government by inducing pride in the hearts of the citizens is an old one.

At any rate, knowing that the government actually reached an agreement with the Confederacy of Gallia but decided to breach it anyway in an act of war without even proper explanation thereof makes the whole conflict look even more miserable from Kusarian perspective.

In your understanding, has the character of war changed and what should we expect from this war in the future?

The first thing that has changed is international attention that is gradually attracted to a greater extent to the war. Recent condemnation of the war by Natio Octavarium is an indicator that the war is seen as the act of tyranny and violation of the existing status quo in the Taus. This certainly will not be good for commercial activities of Kusari internationally, as our reputation will deteriorate and perhaps even be compared with the Kingdom of Gallia itself now that it is gone and its place of the “big bad wolf” is vacant. Bashing in the media is likely to intensify and continue.

The second thing is worsening crime situation back in Kusari. While I have confidence in the capacity of KSP to prevent and resolve crime situations, terrorist groups like Blood Dragons or Golden Chrysanthemums require quite often the involvement of the Navy to prevent their deeds. Remember, that Blood Dragons are professional military after all. And do not forget about the Hogosha. Their shady business can expand rapidly while the attention of the police is diverted away from administrative and commercial crimes in the absence of the support of the Navy at countering possible terrorist attacks. Do we need even more brothels, shady casinos, and yakuza activity?

Thirdly, as the Navy are pushing even deeper into Gallia, their supply lines become even more exposed to counterattacks. This can lead to devastating repeat of the events of 817 when our fleets were cornered in Taus by the Gauls from all sides. Gallia still has formidable forces to resist and bite. And someday we will find their bite to be too painful for us to take. However, this is a problem not even because of the possibility of a military loss, but because of the lack of clear objectives to the war. The forces are pushing deeper for what? Taking New Paris? That will draw the war for years similarly to how the Gauls tried to take New London for years. It will also cost us trillions of credits and thousands of human lives. If not New Paris, then what? The authorities state they are not fighting the war against the citizens and respectively do not occupy planets and bases. This deprives them of supply lines and just puts under question even the adequacy of moving deeper into hostile territory. If the purpose is the lightning war with a view to force Gallia to cede Taus, then they are already too deep into enemy territories with a huge risk of a counterattack as the Gallic forces are reorganising. Even if we consider the laughable objectives set forth in the declaration, I see no way how the current actions of the Navy are bringing the war cabinet closer to their realisation. I doubt the Gauls would surrender being too proud of themselves following centuries of propaganda feeding their sense of self-exceptionalism. Besides, the Council had been waging a war with less resources and even without the capacities of New Paris for decades prior to the establishment of the Confederacy. This war is nothing new to them. So I have no idea how the Navy are going to enforce the terms they are invoking in the war declaration.

What should Kusari do then, in your opinion?

Now that the war has been raging for over a month this is a much more complicated matter than when I first addressed the public. It would be much more difficult to convince the sides to stop firing shots and sit at the negotiation table. If it was up to me, I would contact some third party for mediation of the negotiation and to send the request to convene a conference on the war. Prior the recent events, I would opt for Natio Octavarium, but now that they are a belligerent to the war it makes their involvement as a mediator less acceptable by Kusari.

I would consider calling upon Liberty as a distant House without interests in Tau region safe for stopping the flow of Cardamine. Establishment of peace in the region would benefit them as it would return some sense of order in Taus and prevent the spread of the orange drug. They also can act in the capacity of peacekeepers should a ceasefire be reached. Their fleet is big enough to dispatch an expeditionary group to oversee the enforcement of peace. This, however, can be less favoured by the Gauls due to their history with the Liberty. The Confederacy not being the Kingdom of old and many important positions occupied by the ex-Council members, I still do believe they can find a way to cooperate with the Libertonians.
Following the negotiations it is in the interest of the international community to push the sides to reaching an agreement, preferably not favouring either of the sides not to feed the revanchism that is bad in any case. Returning to pre-war conditions would be a favourable, in my opinion, development. Kusari might be required to pay some contribution, although I would advise the parties to refrain from making unreasonable claims in this direction as Kusari at least tried to avoid inflicting damage on the civilian population. This would also prevent the rise of nationalistic chauvinism among the populace that despite Kusari being a clear aggressor to the conflict can see the demands unfair.

These are mere speculations, I must admit, since the real course of negotiations is to be determined once the negotiations can be organised in the first place. I must reiterate though that the widest international representation and participation is needed to provide peer-pressure for the establishment of peace and initially needed peacekeeping operation in the region.

Kimi no iken wo osietekurete arigatou gozaimasu, Shimamori-san. This will conclude out interviews with the guests. Many points have been presented today and we hope that they will contribute to the all-side understanding of the political situation between the Reformed Empire of Kusari and the Confederacy of Gallia. We implore our viewers to take into considerations all points of view yet to rely on their own judgement.

This was Ito Fumihiro for AHN. Thank your watching and sayounara! This programme was brought you by

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