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Shimamori · (This post was last modified: 11-04-2020, 05:08 PM by Shimamori.)

All Honshu Network:
News and Entertainment from the Eastern Jewel of Kusari

Mina-san, konnichiwa. This is Ito Fumihiro and you are watching "Hi no ki” (//Mood of the Day) on All Honshu Network. We are offering news on the latest developments in Kusari and beyond. Today the topic of our discussion again will be Second Kusaro-Gallic war. Stay tuned as our reporters contacted both sides to get exclusive first-hand opinions from both sides. We also took the interview of koushaku Shimamori who was leading the efforts to find the peaceful resolution to the conflict and asked his thoughts on the situation.

Firstly, we will briefly recap on the causes and the course of war. The war broke out in June 827 A.S. with the attack of Kusari Naval Forces on a wide front in Taus. The targets were Barra Anchorage station in Tau 31 which was taken from the Crayter Republic, La Charite Spaceport in Tau 53, and Cheronsee Station in Tau 2, both Gallic corporate assets. The war commenced without the proper declaration of war, which followed only later, and was a surprise for stakeholders all around Sirius.

According to the Declaration of War issued by the Kusari imperial government, the casus belli was to bring Gallic war criminals to justice and to rid the world of the weapons of mass destruction that the Gauls were harbouring. As such, the target of the war was the recently established Duchy of Burgundy, the so-called successor to the Kingdom of Gallia which preserved its administrative and societal features. However, this casus belli was criticised as far-fetched and covering the real cause of war - dominance in Taus, which was the reason for Kusari-Bretonia war in 813 A.S. This view is supported by a few observations:

The real successor to the Kingdom of Gallia which likely harbours most Gallic war criminals because they simply have nowhere else to go is the Enclave. Enclave allegedly is even home to the King Charles, rendering it not a successor to the Kingdom, but actually the Kingdom just significantly reduced in size. As such, it would only be natural if Kusari would seek justice by launching an attack against the Enclave, which at the same time was also still at war against Bretonia.
There was and still is no proof of the Duchy of Burgundy or the Confederacy of Gallia on the whole to either harbour war criminals (at least those who have not been punished under the new Gallic confederate legislation) or weapons of mass destruction.
Despite the declared casus belli, the war was waged on Gallia as a whole, not simply on the Duchy of Burgundy. Invasion to the system of Languedoc, which is quite distant from Duchy’s space and overall being under the jurisdiction of a separate Confederacy constituent state, the Minarchy of Provence, speaks for itself.
Attack on already mentioned Homan’s Outpost belonging to the Republic of Crayter, which during the Gallic invasion to Sirius fought against the Royal Forces together with Bretonia, Liberty, and Kusari on the initial stages of war does not fall in line with the logic of the conflict presented by the Kusari imperial government. Moreover, its distant location from the Gallic theatre of war which was supposed to be the main one, draws to conclusion of Kusari’s interests in lower Taus akin to those during the war with Bretonia in 813-817 A.S.

Regardless of the validity of the casus belli invoked, the shots were fired and the war could not be simply stopped. There were some movements to cease the conflict in its inception. From Kusari’s side, in particular. Shimamori Masahito, koshaku of imperial Shimamori clan, attempted to find diplomatic support to push the belligerents for peace. This attempt, however, did not succeed and the war continued. The initial surprise effect played for the benefit of Kusari Naval Forces. The fleet of Confederacy, although being larger and more technically advanced than Kusari’s fleet, was caught off guard and had to withdraw from the borders, allowing Kusari fleet to get a foothold deep in Languedoc and Lorraine systems. Military experts suggest that these losses were due to the restructurisation of the fleet of Gallia following the collapse of the Kingdom in particular to re-arm the new confederate warships and get rid of the old “Warwolf” cannon that was mentioned as one of the reasons for war. In addition, the Confederacy was overall disorganised due to being a political Frankenstein made of constituent-states with very different administrative and economic systems, each of them not mature enough to be efficient because of existing not even 5 years. The lack of coordination among the forces was aggravated by overall abandoning the old practices of the Royal Navy command in line with over-encompassing reforms in the Confederacy.

Disorganised resistance efforts of the Gallic forces allowed the Imperial Navy to seize control over Quillan and push for Dauphine system. It soon became obvious, however, that the initial momentum was being lost and further progress of the Naval Forces was stalled due to the Gallic fleet re-organising fast and starting inflicting serious damage on the Kusari invasion forces. The Enclave’s joining the fray with their sizeable and battle-hardened fleet despite its weariness turned the tide in Languedoc, squeezing Kusari forces out of Quillan’s orbit and further into Dauphine. The situation became to look grim for the Empire, and in desperation all the home fleets, namely Sado and Yamaguchi, were mobilised to bolster the invasion forces, leaving Kusari’s back almost unprotected. This move caused a lot of criticism at home, yet managed to bring certain relief to the invasion forces that managed to stage a successful breach of Gallic defences in Dauphine. This operation, however, strained the Kusari forces even further and the success was achieved at the expense of tremendous losses. As of now, Kusari invasion forces are cut off in Dauphine system, but still have significant presence in Lorraine where they have a stable supply line through Tau 53 system.

Having summed up the previous developments, we jump to our today’s guests and their opinions on the situation and its possible resolution. Firstly, we welcome Miroslav de Gobineau, a Captain of the Confederacy Forces. For security and convenience reasons, Gobineau-san will be joining us over the neural network line.

Bonjour, Monsieur de Gobineau. Thank you for joining us today and agreeing to present your opinion to the populace of Kusari. We know it must be hard given the circumstances, and we appreciate your voice contributing to better understanding of each other and building bridges between our peoples. Firstly, I would like to ask you what is the opinion of the soldiers and the officers on the ongoing conflict?

Video-feed opens up with a view on a bulky and strong male in his thirties. Tall and beefy, he looks somewhat like a bear and at the same time, this man feels humble and gentle. Sitting on a couch somewhere in an office, he is dressed in a brand-new and fresh Gallic officer uniform, maybe even parade one. He even has a cap on his head. After looking in the camera for a brief moment and smiling uncomfortably, listening for the question, he nods and readjust his position. His speech had a very distinctive Gallic accent and was plagued with Gallic words.

Spirits are high, I would say. You see, every single Gallic soldier, officer, man, woman and I think even children know four words by heart. Honneur. Patrie. Valeur. Discipline. These are Core Gallic Values. Honor, fatherland, valor and discipline. And never before the whole idée of our Values was under such direct attack as now. Everyone understands that. Everyone, every single matelot, sea-... sea-man and every single technician in the Navy, every single factory worker and medic in the hospital, everyone is doing everything he can to defend Gallia. Because defeat will mean the failure of this système. You know, it's like, uh-h... fight between Good and Evil. The government of the Kusarian state attacked us without declaration, like cowards, and this is something unacceptable in our culture. It goes against the idée of Honneur. Miroslav made a pause to drink out of the prepared water bottle and adjusted his sitting position again.

I'll be honest with you, regular Gallic people never liked this whole... Sirian culture in the first place and the conflict now, like... re-ignited this sentiment. It's not, well, anti-Sirian, it's more like... very patriotic sentiment. I know that there are good people out there, I mean, I am speaking to one right now, but there's also... not very good people. Jingoistic and revanchist-ic. Whole nation of Gallia was trying to distance themselves from the, well, sins of the past, but we have what we have now…

What was the impression of the civilian population on the conflict from army's perspective? Has there been any aggression against civilians?

I think, we need to ask regular people about that because, well, I might not have the best look at the 'civilian' perspective. But people were shocked, of course, it was like a... lightning. Like, one day there is news that the government is having fruitful cooperation with Kusari Empire and, pow... Miroslav claps his hands ...the Kusari fleet is already in Languedoc. People are probably afraid and unsure but they are staying strong. They are helping the families, widows and invalides, they are supporting the Navy, sending gifts and postcards. Interestingly, the whole Kusarian invasion had a premise that they are not going to hurt the civilians but first thing that happened was, basically, destruction of Cheronsee station, it's in Tau-23, and capturing and holding hostage the La Charite Port in Rishi-, excuzez-moi, in the Tau-53. And there's also destruction and havoc in Lorraine and, think about that, the Kusarian battleship rammed a civilian station in Burgundy not so long ago. Of course this will make people furious, of course this is aggression. Of course, this is war and there will be victims but there's such thing as humanity. I mean, being humane to those who are not doing anything to you. Kusari government said that they are fighting to get rid off mass destruction weapons but, mon Deux, there is none, I would be the man who knows such things, and most of the people, civilians, never-ever participated in this whole Sirian Incident. This is hypocrisy and cruelty.

Do you think that finding peace and returning to pre-peace state is still possible?

Miroslav thought for a brief moment after hearing the third question and scratched his beard. After thinking, he shortly laughed and shook his head. - Non-non-non, things have changed, of course. There might be peace, but it will be very... strained peace. Blood was already spilled and whole situation is in such... stage, that this is more than just an insult or, don't know, small-scale border conflict somewhere in the Tau region. It's conquest, it's total war. Such things are not being forgotten or, like, swept under the rug. Fighting can stop, of course, navy men would see their families and enjoy leave but on the political level, there is always going to be a constant struggle. Bad blood leads to bad blood, this is the saying, I think. Miroslav was silent for some seconds, thinking about something and then he spoke with enthusiasm - You know, actually, if something would happen in Kusari itself, like, the government is going to have some changes and the new government be very sorry and do everything to mend the wounds and rebuild the trust, then there might be a change, a good change. Yes, Gallic people will hold the grudge but we also value the concept of absolution. So, there might be a positive change. I hope, the state could be even better than before.

Do you think this conflict has brought Gallia closer to unity?

As soon as the question was asked, Miroslav actively nodded - Oui, oui. Yes, of course, indeed. The danger to Gallia is something that unites everyone here. From the most liberal folk of the Republic to the most conservative aristocrats in the Duchy. This is far more serious than some disagreements in how the country is being run or, je ne sais pas, what wine is better for what. The nation is in grave danger, the whole idea of a nation. And this unites people because it is a fight for Gallic identity, pride and nationhood.

How do you think will the conflict end and what are your fears regarding its ramifications?

Miroslav drew a long sigh, thinking about the question and then just shrugged - My own opinion, bon? Eventually, we should push them out of the Gallia and there might be a stalemate in Taus. This is one possibility. Or maybe their frontline crumbles and we push them all the way to Kusari core worlds. I mean, I am a peaceful man by nature but the idea that our Superdupont will be translated from Gallic to Kusarian and shown to Kusarian kids... Miroslav laughs a little bit tightly and then shook his head. - Or, well, if you already asked about my fears, there is a possibility that I don't want to think about. We might lose. But I am not considering that. I am certain that I, my men under my command and the whole Gallic fleet will fight off the invasion and that we will rebuild Gallia. I am adamant on that. Oui, this will be a rocky road and there will be hardships and all, but-but eventually, Gallia will be stronger than before.

Merci beaucoup for your opinion and time, Monsieur de Gobineau. I sincerely hope that your voice will be heard on the both sides of the barricades and will prompt the decision-makers to resolve this conflict as soon as possible.

Now, we switch to the Kusarian side. I should apologise to our viewers as the officer of the Imperial Navy who initially came forth to give an interview on the issue suddenly became unavailable and because of this the person who generously agreed to dedicate his time on the urgent interview did not have much time for a lengthy discussion. Nonetheless, we greatly appreciate the time he found to participate on the programme. Please, welcome an ex-serviceman of the Kusari Tenkoku Uchuugun (//Kusari Imperial Space Forces). We are glad to have such a venerable veteran as yourself here. For security and convenience reasons he will be reaching to us through neural network connection.

Konbanwa and thank you for your invitation.

Please call me Goro-san, my family name shouldn't matter. Well, I don't want them to know I still keep such a close eye on Kusari's internal and external matters even after we left Kusari behind during the Gallic Invasion. I hope that's okay.

Konnichiwa, Goro-san. Please, allow me to thank you for your participation on the programme. We greatly appreciate your time and opinion, especially given the time constraints you have faced due to the force-major with the previous interviewee. We are sure you will represent well the opinion of the Kusari military, especially given your past combat experience in multiple wars. To begin with, what is the opinion of the soldiers and the officers on the ongoing conflict that has dragged for longer than expected?

I got in touch with some old comrades of mine. Most of them appear to lean positively towards the war. A few complained about inefficiency in the command chain, which they state is the main reason the swift strike slowed down so much. Can't blame them for this, ain't the first time the Shogunate's plans looked better on paper than reality.
But as a war veteran of the Gallic Invasion, I know everyone yearns to return home after a while. Still, I doubt morale is at an all times low compared to the faithful days taking down the first Empire.

To all my former comrades out there, stay strong.

How would you evaluate the defense of the Gauls?

The Gallics defense? Clearly, the original momentum caused by the surprise attack is gone. The Gallics were always fierce fighters, defensive or aggressive doesn't matter to them. They are still poisoned by a Kingdom which grew hatred into people's minds incomparable to any Sirian Regime so far. A mere change of the governing system doesn't change people that quickly. They're what they were raised to be: Xenophobic, hateful people whose minds are still foggy from generations of propaganda. Time will tell if the norm becomes a rarity in the future and the majority of them will finally embrace a certain togetherness with the Sirian Nations.

Do you think that the efforts of Kusari actually brought the Confederacy and the Enclave closer?

Political wise? Most likely. It was to be expected. A war led over crimes the Kingdom committed, over honor and what-not else? Of course such things provoke the defender's population. As I already said, they couldn't change in such a short time-frame. Nobody can. I really wouldn't be surprised if the Council forces as the only sizable different mindset in Gallia – mind you, they are few compared to the general population even now after practically winning the Gallic War – grow all desperate now that the damaged Confederacy could lose political strength and the Enclave gain never truly lost influence back.

How do you think will the conflict end and what are your fears regarding its ramifications?.

How it will end.. I doubt it ends satisfactory for either side. Our future trade relation to them will be grim, at very best. Border skirmishes might become a thing, especially when keeping the Gallics general mindset in account. Not like we are any better at backing down.

Personally, I doubt that Gallia will attempt to act revanche on Kusari. Actually, I doubt our Shogunate intended this but I think this could result in a new internal mess for Gallia. You know the Maquis? Words claim they are ultra-democrats. Them, the Council, neither of them would back down if the Enclave tried to gain a foothold again.

Gallia falling into another – at very least just political – internal struggle is inevitable.
In the case of a revanche act against Kusari, it will be a bloody battle, that's for sure. This will also be the day I return to Kusari and re-enlist with the Naval Forces.

Regarding Kusari's pests, there is just to state how surprised I am. So far no major sightings flashed the newspapers, no large movements, no strikes whatsoever. Either they are still plotting something or they finally consider just giving up, who knows?

Unfortunately, my time is limited. So we got to wrap this up.

To all the listeners, our people, my old comrades, curious civilians from other houses, remember that war is inevitable but never fully justified. This brief chapter in history shall stand as yet another grim reminder that humanity does not change.

To all listeners of the Gallic Law Enforcement, defend your home as you must, take a step onto Kusari soil in search of revenge and I will be there.

We thank you, Goro-san, for taking your time answering our questions and extend best wishes to you and your family wherever you might be. Your voice is as important for us as the voice of any citizen of Kusari regardless of their place of residence.

Now, surprisingly, upon coming to the studio koushaku Shimamori shared with us the logs of his flagship “Zuiryu” which encountered an Enclave warship in Tau 53. The sides refrained from violence, which is yet another sign of the possibility of finding peace, and the commander of the Gallic Royal Navy generously agreed to an impromptu interview. With the permission of Shimamori-san, we publish here the interview. The commander of the vessel in question expressed the wish to remain anonymous, so video feed and unedited logs enabling the viewers to identify the ship in question will not be used.

Enclave Officer: Oh, bonjour.

Shimamori: konnichiwa!

Enclave Officer: Well, well. Kusarians everywhere!

Shimamori: indeed so. Do not let the appearance of the ship confuse you, however. We are not of the KNF. I represent the imperial Shimamori clan. This ship was granted to the clan upon its founding. My ancestors indeed were of uchuu-gun (//Space Forces) but not me.

Enclave Officer: What makes you different from the Kusarian savages in the Naval Forces? I find it hard to believe you're different.

Shimamori: the mere fact I am not working for them? And perhaps the fact that I am the only one of the Kusarians who reached out to the Parisian Assembly seeking peace. I am "the political opposition" so to say. I was and am against the war.

Enclave Officer: Good. The war only brought chaos to our home.

Shimamori: unfortunately, my political gravity is not big enough to sway the imperial court and the Shogun alone and other Houses showed disinterest in finding peace. So I am doing what I can do to help my home - guarding against criminals.

Enclave Officer: Oui, oui.

Shimamori: you must be well aware that Kusari sent all the ships to Gallia, leaving home system a piece of the cake for all sorts of brigands.

Enclave Officer: Then we shall allow you to do so. Oui. We are aware.

Shimamori: quite generous of you, monsieur. Merci beaucoup. Pardon my bad Gallic, I have not had much time studying the language of the Gauls. Since we found an understanding, I would ask you of a favour, Monsieur.

Enclave Officer: What could that be?

Shimamori: you see, I am supporting the opposition media that propagates peace the newsmakers are right now in the process of making another programme. We have received interviews from the Confederals and the Kusari veteran navy. If I could ask you for a second of your time to present your view on the situaton, I would be greatly appreciated. If we are picking it correctly, you have the IFF of the Royal Forces, meaning you are of the Enclave. And the opinion of the Enclave is badly misrepresented on the news.

Enclave Officer: Oui, we are part of the Enclave. We are aware of that. However we wish to bring peace to our home. Unfortunately, the only way to do so is through violence, since the Kusarians attacked our people.

Shimamori: it saddens me but I cannot but agree with you. The Shogunate won't back down, which is the opposition like me is needed. The Empire cannot go on with audacious decision making like this.

Enclave Officer: Cowards! That's what they are! Attacking hopeless civilians...

Shimamori: I hope this war will teach the Shogun of the peaceful ways Kusari needs.

Enclave Officer: Oui, such events will only bring the Empire to its demise.

Shimamori: would you be willing then to answer a few questions on your views on the war?

Enclave Officer: Oui.

Shimamori: I can guarantee your anonymity if you desire so. So, firstly, what would you as an officer of the Royal Forces think of this war in general?

Enclave Officer: We have a negative opinion about it. We're here to help out our people.

Shimamori: Do you think that Kusari upheld its declared promise of not harming civilians?

Enclave Officer: No. They destroyed several installations, killing with them all the civilians onboard. Any other questions?

Shimamori: do you think that this war brought the Enclave closer with the Confederacy? Perhaps, to unity?

Enclave Officer: Oui, we do think so. In the end, we all wish to have a united Gallia.

Shimamori: a couple more [questions] and I will not hold you any longer, Monsieur. How would you evaluate the fighting? Which side suffered more losses?

Enclave Officer: The other Houses have laughed at the Confederacy - we must show them we are better!

Shimamori: this is sensitive question, so you can speak without strategic details.

Enclave Officer: Unfortunately, the losses have been high for both sides. We are unable to tell you how many casualties the Gallic side has suffered.

Shimamori: how do you think this war will end? What are the possible consequences?

Enclave Officer: We will not answer that question. The outcome is yet to be seen. As for consequences, we cannot give an answer either.

Shimamori: understandable. And the final question: do you think the return to pre-war status quo is possible?

Enclave Officer: Oui. But only if the Kusarians stop their futile attacks. If they do not, we will be forced to fight them with our entire might.

Shimamori: Would Gallia consider not invading Kusari if the latter pays reparations?

Enclave Officer: I cannot give an answer, the HC decides such things.

Shimamori: this will be all. I personally commend your reason not to seek vengeance upon my vessel. It is good seeing that dialogue option is still on the table.

Enclave Officer: It always was.

Shimamori: would you have any preferences on how you should be presented? Or should we leave your input anonymous?

Enclave Officer: Anonymous.

Shimamori: as promised, your decision shall be honoured. I thank you on behalf of the Shimamori clan. Know that not everyone in Kusari supports this idiotic war.

Enclave Officer: Very well. We will depart now, duty awaits us.

Shimamori: safe skies, commander.

This is surely some exclusive content. We thank you, Shimamori-san, for coming to us today and participating in the programme, as well as for the content you shared.

The pleasure is all mine, and we should thank the Enclave commander whom I met for the shown civility in this time of madness.

Shimamori-san, can you add anything on the opinions shared by our guests?

Well, the guests speak for themselves. In my book, they all complement the picture that we have. On the front all the sides are represented by the soldiers who are carrying out the orders. Whether it is a Kusari veteran, Confederacy officer, or a member of the Enclave - they all are ready to defend their home. However, at the moment the Gauls are defending their home, Gallia in general so it does not matter whether we are talking about the Enclave or the Confederacy soldiers. The voice of the Kusari veteran is also quite illustrative of the fact that the soldiers of Kusari, even those already retired, have a strong sense of duty and are ready to re-enlist should there be threat to their Sokoku (//Fatherland). However, Kusari soldiers are less so convinced about the necessity to fight if it is the invasion of someone else's home we are talking about. Why should we expect less of the Gauls? Our soldiers know perfectly well that the Gauls are defending their homes and their spirits are higher. Of course, there are sentiments for the war lost and the damage inflicted by the Gauls upon Kusari - but it is time to rebuild, the population is tired of endless wars and many soldiers simply want to lay down the arms, bury the hatchet and return to peaceful life where “tomorrow” is more predictable.

And, as the Enclave officer duly noted, it is up to the command to decide. Soldiers are following orders, they do not want to become deserters and are obliged to wage war. So I do hope that these opinions, our discussions in general, are heard by the decision makers in Kusari. The message is loud and clear - we do not want this war. We want it over already. People want peace. People want your attention at economy, social policy, not on allocating even more taxpayer’s money on war that has not been looking good from the very start.

Speaking of it, how would you evaluate the “progress”, if we can call it this way, of the war, Shimamori-san?

Well, the war is still raging. It is surprising how the Kusari fleet managed to stage a successful offensive in Dauphine. Certainly, I lack all the information but from what it appears the Uchuugun (//Space Forces) were severely outnumbered and their “success” if we can call it this way due to the horrendous human toll, looks like some “Deus ex machina” or “divine intervention”, whatever you prefer. This opens some opportunities for the KNF. Still the resources are strained. The Gauls are most likely aided by the civilian initiative guerrillas who are fighting for their home and at their home. Do not forget the Enclave with their sizeable fleet. Originally, the combined fleet of the Enclave and the Confederacy was larger than Kusari one, and their industrial capabilities that had been for centuries oriented on war and even more so specialised prior to invasion to Sirius allow them to recuperate faster. The KNF, on the other hand, is far away from home, its resources drained. There are no more sizeable fleets back home - all reserves have been sent to war and perhaps are the only reason for limited “success” in Dauphine.

Given these developments, what can be the outcome of the war?

Well, there are three main options: the tactical victory of Kusari, the tactical victory of Gallia, and a stalemate. I will elaborate on each of those before saying what I personally think.

Kusari is unprotected right now and it is a miracle that the Dragons are not using this situation for their benefit. If Kusari fleets are cut off, it would require a single fleet for the Gauls to breach Kusari core worlds. Planetary defense grids will hold, of course, but the cut supply lines will render the planets besieged. If the Dragons, however, decide to help the Gauls - I doubt they will help defeat their own people, still it depends on the scale of help provided - the Gauls with the access to Dragons’ knowledge on secret routes throughout Kusari systems will have the advantage of carrying out rapid unexpected strikes here and there. In absence of the navy, the police would not be able to hold off a Gallic fleet. So, surely, there is a risk of Kusari losing, and losing badly. I am saying a “tactical” defeat because i do not think Gallia will go as far to bring down Kusari on the whole - it would require a lot of resources which they do not have as of now. Still, knowing their determination they can even go this path at expense of their own stability, prosperity, and integrity “to send the message”, but then they will be very vulnerable to, say, warmongers in Libertonian political establishment who might seize the opportunity to strike already bloodied Gallia together with Bretonia. So I will not consider an unconditional capitulation of Kusari as an option.

A tactical defeat of Kusari, however, will not bring anything good as well. Most likely, we will be forced to pay reparations, decrease temporarily the size of our fleet, and give up claims in Taus. A side effect might be inability to protect certain assets against the inner foes - Samura’s colonisation efforts in Tottori and Nagano can become infeasible. Without the protection of the Navy, the dragons will seize Miyazaki and Tomioka for themselves and, lacking the capital, they will not be able to uphold the development of the colonies and the planets will be lost. Our economy will suffer badly in other ways as well: increased taxation to pay off the reparations, restoration of what is left of the fleet, cessation of trade with Gallia and re-orientation of the markets, again. You all remember how the markets suffered after the installation of the republican puppet government, re-orienting trade to Gallia. The financial sector will surely take a hit, too, as the stocks and other derivatives will lose in price. Most importantly, the imperial government bonds will lose its status of “high-trust-low-income” derivatives, losing in price and depleting the savings of the citizens and businesses.

Diplomatically, being loser in war which Kusari started will certainly not give any rights to posing oneself as victims, thus not having diplomatic support in the case. Having antagonised the Crayterians, who are tightly connected to Bretonians and Libertonians, will not earn us brownie points among the political establishments of Liberty and Bretonia, albeit they overall being anti-Gallic. The whole story with starting a war with some tailored excuses, for I cannot call those “casus belli”, without even proper declaration already renders Kusari as an unreliable and unpredictable diplomatic partner.

Tactical victory of Kusari can certainly bring some benefits for the Empire, yet they will be accompanied by a whole range of problems depending on what will be the demands of the victor. Given the poor reasons for beginning the war, the Shogunate can get greedy and instead of the declared “punishment for war criminals” and “destruction of the weapons of mass destruction” demand territorial concessions. Theoretically only Languedoc and Lorraine could be demanded due to proximity to borders. Looking at the theatre of war, Languedoc is beyond re-capturing, but Lorraine has significant KNF presence. The system is connected through Tau-53 (or “Rishiri”, how the government certainly would call the system should they “win” Lorraine) to Kusari coreworlds. These gains will be accompanied, most likely, by the spoils of war in the Taus - Tau 23, Tau 31, and Tau 53, the latter falling under full control of Kusari. Most likely, they will demand a contribution from the Gauls to alleviate the poor economic condition the Empire is in right now, limit the size of the Fleet of Gallia, and some symbolic tribunals over alleged “criminals” combined with staged for the public destruction of Gallic weaponry. Let us consider plan maximum - Kusari gets all of this.

Lorraine will effectively fall under Kusarian occupation. Our forces there will not be guests, and Gauls are known as fierce xenophobes, especially on pro-royalist world of Metz. Do you think they will sit idly and doing nothing? The KNF will be forced to sit entrenched on Metz struggling against the guerrillas. Moreover, the whole story about “not harming civilians” will be trashed as soon as they will be forced to fight against the guerrillas. Now, let us remember the basics of occupation - you need a lot of troops to establish at least some semblance of control. Because of this, many millions of troops will have to be stationed on Metz. They need supplies and support, and this is an economic burden on all of Kusari. Let’s say they can cover the troops stationed there with the contribution Kusari gets from Gallia. Then, a different problem arises - they need to supply the newly acquired world. Metz is integrated in Gallic economy and torn apart from it, the planet will require a lot of supplies and newly established trade routes. Given the disposition of the local populace, it will not be easy. Again, it will be a burden on Kusarian economy. To make the planet profitable it would take decades, and a change in the opinion of the locals. Remembering the one of the reasons of the Gauls to attack Sirius was because of revenge for events happened back in Sol, I do not think they will forget these events that easily. Kishiro and Samura would be willing to fight for the new market which, however, they would find to be used to different technologies and overall unwilling to do business with them. The system will be a burden, rather than a gain, especially in conditions of already weakened on all fronts Kusari economy during this war and all the other wars preceding it.

There are also political and diplomatic ramifications of the loss of Metz and overall the defeat of Gallia to Kusari. Firstly, Gallia is more likely to unite in the face of existential threat. Be it republicans or royalists, seeing one of their worlds taken away by some foreigners will instill fear and anger, which are certainly not worse than traditionally good virtues in prompting political unification.

Secondly, Gallia will likely seek a revanche with the quite expected and natural casus belli of taking what was lost back. If Metz was taken previously, it would deprive Kusari of any ideological defence in rebuking the claims: we have never actually claimed any Gallic territories in the declaration of war, hence their occupation is wrong in all ways. A united Gallia can pose a much worse threat than disorganised Confederacy.

Thirdly, being occupants ourselves, we will not be able to expect help from the other Houses. Even despite Liberty and Bretonia disliking Gallia, they both remember that we similarly to the Gauls were waging war on Bretonia, and were close to assaulting Leeds ourselves and were stopped only by the arrival of the Gallic armada. Should the Gauls attack us to right what has been wronged in their opinion - we would be left alone.

Besides, the tactical victory would be possible only and if only the Gauls actually agree to it. Knowing how fiercely they fought on all fronts during the invasion, I doubt it would be that easy. Besides, they can endure lengthy war being fought in their homes and having a developed industrial military complex oriented at permanent war, while we are already strained to our limits.

So, in short, tactical victory of Kusari would be a pyrrhic victory - the gains will need to be developed for decades, be it in Taus or Gallia, to at least bear visible benefit while the burden will be felt immediately, exposing all the weakness in Kusari to other players on the international arena, simply waiting to exploit Kusari. It is our luck, let all the Rheinlanders hearing this forgive me, that Rheinland is in a state of turmoil and cannot use the situation to their benefit, otherwise their fleets would be somewhere in Sigmas already.

And variant number three - the stalemate. In my opinion, it is the most likely variant of developments. Both sides are tired and exhausted, both sides have their internal problems, albeit Kusari more so. Those puppeteers behind this war will find a way to get the benefit, so it will be typical diplomatic “wheelings and dealings”. I cannot say for sure what will be the matter of discussion on this case but I presume revision of spheres of influence in Taus, exclusive trade rights, some political concessions, etc. The outcome will also depend heavily on who will be the sides to the peace talks and whether there will be any mediators. Still, this is not only the most likely but also the most preferable outcome. It will prevent strong sentiments for any revanche, establish a new status quo that will be a safeguard against new conflicts (although not excluding them completely), and reduce the tensions. Again, that would depend on which terms are offered. If Kusari is more generous in terms and demands less, it is possible to return to at least some semblance of stability in the region. More demanding stance can jeopardize following re-building of peace, prevent trade between the Houses in the future, and prompt the Gauls to even more chauvinistic policy.

Thank you for such a detailed analysis. It was a bit difficult to follow, but I hope that those interested will hear what they are interested in. And lastly, what are your plans as of now? Have you changed your plans regarding mediating peace?

I genuinely hope I do not bore all of the viewers with my rambling. It is a professional deformation *chuckles*. I also hope those interested will find some insights from my deliberations. As for my plans - recent developments proved my peace efforts to be too “juvenile” and idealistic. Not many actors are interested in organising a peace conference and compelling the belligerents to sit at the table. In such conditions I simply try to increase the international and local awareness of the conflict, spread the image of the war as something illogical and not beneficial for either of sides, and that the peace can actually be a solution. I would like in the future to fund a programme that would feature soldiers’ mothers on both sides sharing their hopes and wishes. I do believe that such stories can reach out emotions in each of us, make us understand that beyond the barricades there are people just like us, with own hopes, aspirations, and dreams who certainly are not in the war for the killing but compelled by the very system and those pulling the strings behind the scene. I am also trying to protect our core systems from the criminals and render other support to the keisatsu (//police) to keep the citizens more or less protected. I also continue the research of new worlds for Kusari to tame peacefully. Recently, we have been observing a star system labelled Sigma-63 with potentially habitable worlds. Who knows, maybe we can establish a colony there and with the resources diverted from war to building we can expand Kusari without bloodshed and while gaining knowledge on new frontiers.

Doumo arigatou gozaimasu (//thank you very much), Shimamori-san, for your time and participation. I would continue, but the time frame for the programme is limited and we will be closing. I hope our viewers got some useful insights and that the interviews we have heard today can be the bricks for building bridge between Gallia and Kusari and contribute to finally finding peace.

This was Ito Fumihiro for AHN. Thank your watching and sayounara! This programme was brought you by

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