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Shimamori · 01-27-2021, 06:56 AM,

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Treaty of Rishiri Concludes Kusari-Gallia War. The Aftermath

Konnichiwa! This is Ito Fumihiro and you are watching "Hi no ki” (//Mood of the Day) on All Honshu Network. We are offering news on the latest developments in Kusari and beyond.

The war is over! A few weeks have passed since the cessation of hostilities between the Reformed Empire of Kusari and the newly established Gallic Union. The short albeit bloody conflict is over and people in both Houses can again look into their future with a semblance of hope.

The war finished at the end of 827 A.S., its outcomes formalised in the Treaty of Rishiri. An 8-article document outlines the post-war relationship and new status quo between the Reformed Empire of Kusari and the Gallic Union. The main “gains” of Kusari in this offensive war secured in the Treaty are the systems of Rishiri (Tau 53) and Tau 23 which until the conflict were border systems in mutual use of both Houses, as well as extended exclusive rights in Tau 31 system, that de facto secures Saga (Tau 29) under control of the Reformed Empire of Kusari. Were these gains worth the sacrifices and the war? Today, we will try to answer this question. Koshaku Shimamori Masahito of Haneda and Professor Onoda Ryouma of Shintodai will be helping us in the analysis of the outcomes of this conflict.

Onoda-sensei, welcome to our studio. Professor Onoda is a post-doc fellow at Kokusai Kankei Gakubu (//Department of International Relations) at Shin Tokyo Daigaku (//New Tokyo University). Before proceeding to the evaluation of the outcomes of the war, would you please share your thoughts on how the diplomatic part of the conflict’s end was handled?

The pleasure of being today in the studio is mine. Your question is quite important as the diplomatic manoeuvres after any conflict can allow an observer to eye the tensions or lack thereof between the parties. Usually, dragging negotiations indicate that parties are not seeing eye to eye and are relentless in giving the ground, thus likely sparking the conflict once again. In our case, Gallia and Kusari managed to lay down the framework for negotiations and a draft for the document rather quickly. Surely, we cannot know all the under-the-table diplomatic moves employed by the both sides but the regulating Treaty appeared soon after the last shots were fired. In my opinion, it indicated the weariness of both the Gauls and Kusarians of the war and willingness to put an end to the war as fast as possible under mostly neutral conditions which we later on saw in the document.

So in your opinion, diplomatically the treaty was “neutral” and did not favour any of the sides?

Despite me saying so, it is evident that the Treaty favours Kusari. The empire gained exclusive exploration and exploitation rights in Tau 23 and Tau 31, as well as secured the system of Rishiri. Moreover, Kusarian diplomats have demonstrated a good level of understanding the post-war threats and played well the cunning game of gently imposing the points that would safeguard Kusari in the nearest future from the possible power-play of Gallia. Namely, our diplomats have included in the Treaty passages regarding the mutual condemnation of unlawful forces in the Houses of Kusari and Gallia, effectively making it less convenient to use them as proxies for asserting one’s dominance over certain areas. In particular, it would prevent the Gauls, say, from using the Blood Dragons as an intermediary of sowing dissent and chaos in Kusari without actually involving any Gallic forces. The Gauls can still undertake such operations, but having subscribed to official condemnation of all Kusarian criminals it would require them to be much more discreet and any incident revealing their involvement would discredit the Gallic diplomatic reputation. Given their history with the rest of Sirius, this is something they would rather not do as their diplomatic reputation is already not the best. Surprisingly, Gallia refrained from employing the Kusarian outlaws to their aid during the conflict whether it was a matter of honour, lack of agreeability of the latter, strategic oversight, or a simple coincidence. Still, binding the parties by the Treaty to condemn each other’s criminal organisations can safeguard the Empire from, say, the Blood Dragons suddenly receiving Gallic weaponry or being financed with Gallic Francs. There are already too many rumours about the Dragons being financed by the GMG. *chuckles*

Professor Onoda, how would you evaluate the other parts of the Treaty?

Well, there are a few other good points for Kusari. The paragraph about dropping all the “hostile laws” is also good - there have been rumours about the Gauls treating us with cold shower from now on. I can’t blame them, they were the defenders this time. However, they agreed to this paragraph which gives Kusari a leverage in a matter of trade between the houses. In line with this paragraph, Kusari can interpret any laws supporting protectionism and reluctance to trade with Kusari as violation of the point in question. Still, as there is no supra-national organisation to oversee the norms of trade the Gauls can technically violate this paragraph arbitrary without fearing any repercussions - nobody can enforce them to trade with us after the war. Surely, they agreed to this paragraph so violating it will damage their diplomatic reputation. Unlike the case with the criminals, however, this is much less serious and there might be a lot of loopholes, like presenting the lack of desire to trade as a purely private initiative of the Gallic corporations.

No reparations on both sides is also beneficial under current circumstances. Perhaps, this point made it possible for the parties to agree upon the Treaty so fast. Surely, Kusari will need to take the burden of repairing its fleet and paying for the war. Offensive wars usually cost more than defensive. Given how the last stages of war were developing, I can say that Kusari needed to end the conflict fast to avoid possible counter-offensive by slowly re-organising into a united front Gauls. Now that we already know of the Gallic re-unification, that was a good call and a prompt move. Knowing when to stop dreaming of blitzkrieg and admit limited gains is what I can commend our diplomats for. Compared to how the war was started, such an end with grace is worth praising.

Thank you, Professor Onoda for your evaluation of the diplomacy finalising the war. Let us now get to koushaku Shimamori. Thank you for agreeing to come to us today, Shimamori-san. Onoda-sensei has analysed the diplomatic aspect of the end of the war. How would you evaluate the end of war in general?

Thank you for inviting me to the studio, … . As most of the viewers probably know by now, I was one of the vocal critics of the war in the first place. So while I acknowledge the good aspects of handling diplomatic issues at the end of war, there are no excuses for starting this war in the first place. Let us look comparatively at the losses and gains from this war.

According to the Treaty of Rishiri that concluded the war Kusari secures the system of Tau 53, or otherwise known as Rishiri, Tau 23, and part of Tau 31. Tau 53 and Tau 23 were already being used jointly with the Gauls. Tau 23 is a lawless mess. If two houses and the IMG in a joint effort could not stop the Outcasts from going through the system as their backyard spreading their orange plague and raiding our vessels, I doubt Kusari forces will be able to secure the system for either Samura or Kishiro to exploit the natural resources of the system unhindered. Given the losses in the war, the keiretsu should worry lest they assets within Kusari are safe. Overextension of their resources to a barely tamed system can cost them a fortune and not look good in the eyes of the investors and shareholders. In other words, Kusari simply can’t make use of Tau 23 for the time being, and the cold treatment we are going to get from the Gauls makes the cooperation with the Gallic law enforcement in this matter nigh impossible. Tau 31 gains is another example of advancing where do not really need to. Did the Crayterians really bother us? We pushed them out only to have a huge flotilla of the Outcasts advance on Tau 44. Besides, Tau 31 is full of crystalised water. Not like we are in desperate need of water with four aquatic worlds in our core systems. Surely, it will be a proxy space for Saga, but at what cost? Finally, Tau 53 or Rishiri is indeed a valuable system. Yet again, was this whole fuss and losses worthy of a one system rich with gas that we are buying at a favourable price from the GMG? Besides, we had joint ventures with the Gauls there. You know, the Gauls whose engines run on Promethene are not in that dire need of H-Fuel. With smart and competent financial policy Samura could have simply bought out the Gallic assets in the system or reach a deal on monopolising the gas sources which are not so important for the Gauls without the bloodshed. So all in all we have two and a half of systems that cannot be exploited due to the weariness of the two ex-belligerents and ensued activity of unlawful elements in the region.

Certainly, in the long run the systems can benefit the Empire. Mind, however, that both Tau 23 and Tau 53 are bordering on Gallia and with our deteriorated relations further cooperation would be unlikely and controlling the systems alone even in the long run would be difficult. The space gained as the result of the Treaty of Rishiri was also not the claim of the war and/or part of the casus belli, making it more difficult to diplomatically explain the annexation. While I doubt it would be an issue in the short run as both Liberty and Bretonia do not look favourably on Gallia, especially united, and will not impede any diplomatic moves detrimental to Gallia. In the long run, however, should Kusari face any diplomatic fallout with other Houses, these claims can be remembered.

And one of the most important outcomes of the war - the losses. The official data is not released by the navy but by juxtaposing the information from the open sources of the both sides, stories by the military staff returned, I can assume that up to a half of the whole fleet of Kusari was lost in the fight. I am most certain they gave a good fight and inflicted heavy casualties on the Gauls. Mind, however, that the latter have just united and installed a military government. Having been an industrial powerhouse before, I assume they would be able to rebuild their fleet rather fast. Given how Kusari unexpectedly declared the war on the Gauls without regard to previous agreements, I fear the Gauls might attempt a similar pre-emptive strike once they recovered and the Empire is still weak without regard to the Treaty of Rishiri. I hope this does not happen but we created a dangerous precedent here. Needless to say, rebuilding our fleet and training new crews will take time and a lot of already strained financial resources. And most importantly - so many lives were lost for the benefits of the few. Samura is an important keiretsu for Kusari for sure, but do its business interest outweigh the lives of our soldiers? As I said before, Samura is prosperous enough to have tried non-violent takeover methods on corporate level without involving the state. So all in all, in my opinion, the war achieved little and could have been avoided. Moreover, it engendered a more dangerous neighbour than before who is definitely not friendly to us and will not be in the nearest future. Little gains with liabilities and increased risks are not what is expected of a “calculated” war.

From your perspective, Shimamori-san, it looks really gruesome. There are still many people, however, who welcomed this war and now welcome the victory.

And I do understand their feelings. The pride of our House was lost during the first war with Gallia. The Emperor was exiled, and a civil war ensued. Victory over arguably the strongest Navy in the sector is something that can give people the sense of pride for Kusari. Let them be proud then, there is nothing wrong with that. I just urge them to remember that this proud victory was a Pyrrhic one and came at a cost. My opinion is simply that this cost was too high for Kusari to pay and the whole deal was not worth it.

What do you think happens now, Shimamori-san? How would you comment on future of Kusari?

That is a tough question, … Our economy is strained by the recovery after the war, severed trade routes, and remaining after the civil war and Gallic occupation challenges. The unlawful activity is record high, and it unlikely to be reduced with less resources at the disposal of the Navy and the Police. Yet I look into the optimistically: our people have always been diligent and hard-working and this cannot be changed. Like before, we will endure. Nevertheless, I hope our leaders have learnt a lesson from this war and will refrain from aggressive diplomacy in the future. We gained little and lost much.

I hope that the attention of the government now after the war will be directed at domestic issues. Dealing with the rising criminal activity and fostering economic growth should be two priorities. I doubt that we will have important diplomatic activities. Perhaps, time to conclude peace with the Crayterians - certainly we don’t need another hostile entity in already barely controlled Tau Rim. I would also like to see more political will to reform - the current political system is cumbersome. The administrative and legislative apparatuses. May the recent incident with a colony of cats occupying the Kokkai (//Parliament) is a symbolic impetus to driving the change for higher efficiency. For example, as I said before, the position of a Shogun is an atavism, one can even consider the legacy of Hideyoshi. I bet a regular high command composed of the admiralty can take of the military affairs. We should not multiply entities beyond need, simplicity is surprisingly effective. If the post of a Shogun is to be preserved then it is to be endowed with powers different from regular military headquarters.

In time of peace and unburdened by urgent military commissions, I expect the keiretsu to play a more prominent role in Kusari’s domestic affairs and economic revitalisation. It would be great to see the keiretsu step in where the government cannot venture right now, such as development of Tottori. However, I would be very careful with starting business operations in Rishiri and Tau 23 - I already mentioned the reasons why it might be a financial liability. Strengthening domestic positions before having enough venture capital to invest into the Taus might be necessary. I personally will continue to work in Honshu and hope to contribute to Empire’s safety and prosperity in the system, and encourage all the viewers to support their home worlds by doing well their job, staying away from criminal activities and drugs, and staying optimistic.

Shimamori-san, bunseki to iken de arigatou gozaimasu (//Thank you for your analysis and opinion). We at AHN hope that peaceful time lasts for Kusari and brings stability and prosperity to the Empire. Stay safe and take care of your beloved ones. This will conclude today’s programme. How do you feel about the end of the war? Do you share the optimistic feeling about the future? Share your thoughts with us! This was Ito Fumihiro for AHN. Thank your watching and sayounara! This programme was brought you by

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